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Campaign Assessment Using Belief Networks  

Teledyne Scientific Company's Campaign Assessment Tool is a concept demonstration for campaign tracking and assessment. The tool shows the hierarchical (strategy-to-task) plan in a graphical user interface, and tracks the current status of each action pending, in progress, and completed (successfully, or otherwise). The display shows alarms when actions go worse than expected; the alarms are prioritized according to their overall importance to the campaign. The display also shows observations related to each action, and ranks them according to how useful they would be for determining the outcome of that action.

Underneath, a probabilistic causal model is used to estimate the status of non-primitive actions based on the outcomes of subordinate actions and observations. The causal model relates the outcomes of lower level actions to the expected outcomes of the higher level actions it supports (e.g. destruction of a bridge to prevent enemy crossing of a river), and it also relates the outcomes of actions to the expected outcomes of observations (e.g. enemy crossing of a river to sightings of enemy equipment on the far side of the river). Predictions based on the causal model are used to track campaign progress and to prioritize alarms and observations.

The Campaign Assessment Tool demonstrates two things: The potential utility of probabilistic causal modeling for describing what is expected or "supposed to happen" in a campaign at every level of the strategy-to-task hierarchy and thus, tracking campaign status by comparing it to predictions. This is a framework for defining the impact of observations, in particular those observations which bear on the effect of high-level actions, i.e. observations which help to answer the question, "Did we accomplish what we set out to accomplish?".


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Teledyne Scientific & Imaging, LLC
1049 Camino Dos Rios, Thousand Oaks, CA 91360
Phone: (805) 373-4545   Fax: (805) 373-4775
Copyright © 2008 Teledyne Technologies Incorporated. All rights reserved.