Teledyne
Scientific Company's Campaign Assessment Tool
is a concept demonstration for campaign tracking and assessment.
The tool shows the hierarchical (strategy-to-task)
plan in a graphical user interface, and tracks the current
status of each action pending, in progress, and completed (successfully,
or otherwise). The display shows alarms when actions go worse
than expected; the alarms are prioritized according to their
overall importance to the campaign. The display also shows
observations related to each action, and ranks them according
to how useful they would be for determining the outcome of
that action.
Underneath,
a probabilistic causal model is used to estimate the status
of non-primitive actions based on the outcomes of subordinate
actions and observations. The causal model relates the outcomes
of lower level actions to the expected outcomes of the higher
level actions it supports (e.g. destruction of a bridge to
prevent enemy crossing of a river), and it also relates the
outcomes of actions to the expected outcomes of observations
(e.g. enemy crossing of a river to sightings of enemy equipment
on the far side of the river). Predictions based on the causal
model are used to track campaign progress and to prioritize
alarms and observations.
The Campaign Assessment Tool demonstrates two things: The potential utility
of probabilistic causal modeling for describing what is expected or "supposed
to happen" in a campaign at every level of the strategy-to-task hierarchy
and thus, tracking campaign status by comparing it to predictions. This is
a framework for defining the impact of observations, in particular those observations
which
bear on the effect of high-level actions, i.e. observations which help to answer
the question, "Did we accomplish what we set out to accomplish?".
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